Wegovy: Trump's Deal vs. White House Claims

Generated Title: Trump's Weight Loss Drug Deal: A Win for Wallets or Just Another Political Game?

The Fine Print on Lower Drug Prices

The Trump administration is touting new deals with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly that promise to slash the cost of popular weight loss and Type 2 diabetes drugs. The headline: Medicare beneficiaries could see monthly copays as low as $50. Sounds good, right? But as always, the devil's in the details—and the BMI requirements.

Let's break down what's actually on the table. According to the White House announcement, these deals will make drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound available for a flat $245 a month to Medicare and Medicaid programs. (State Medicaid programs, crucially, have to opt in separately.) The kicker is the eligibility criteria. To qualify, patients need a body mass index (BMI) over 27 and established prediabetes or cardiovascular disease, or a BMI over 30 and uncontrolled hypertension, kidney disease, or heart failure, or a BMI over 35.

Now, a BMI of 27 puts you in the "overweight" category, not obese. So, this isn't just about weight loss; it's about addressing specific health risks associated with being overweight. A senior administration official even stated, "This is not about losing weight. It is about making America healthier." Which, I suppose, is a more palatable spin.

The companies are also pledging to offer starting doses of their upcoming obesity pills (if they get FDA approval) for $149 a month to those on Medicare, Medicaid, and using TrumpRx.gov. Current injectable medications will be available through TrumpRx without insurance at $350 a month, dropping to $245 over two years. Eli Lilly, for instance, is promising to cut $50 off its direct-to-consumer price for Zepbound, making the starting dose $299 a month and higher doses $449.

The Political Calculus Behind the Pills

Geoffrey Joyce, a health economist at USC, suggests the manufacturers were "open to this partly for political reasons, but also it was just going to expand their patient population dramatically." I suspect he's right. It's a win-win (allegedly): good PR for the administration and a potentially massive boost in sales for the drug companies. White House strikes deals for lower prices on obesity drugs

And the "most favored nation" drug pricing initiative? The idea is to get the same or lower prices as other developed countries. Which begs the question: why were we paying so much more in the first place? Is this a genuine attempt to level the playing field, or just a pre-election stunt to garner votes? I've looked at enough pharmaceutical pricing models to know that "fair" is a relative term.

The White House also says that these deals will be "budget neutral" within two years because the increased access to these drugs will lower spending on other health services. Dr. Mehmet Oz (yes, that Dr. Oz), who leads the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, claims "These drugs will not cost us money. The American taxpayers will be getting their money back." Bold claim. But what's the data backing that up? Are they factoring in potential side effects, long-term adherence rates, and the possibility that people might simply not lose weight, even with the drugs?

Also, in return for these commitments, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will get a three-year exemption from certain tariffs. A quid pro quo, plain and simple.

The TrumpRx website, slated to launch sometime in 2026, will supposedly direct consumers to pharmaceutical companies' direct-to-consumer websites to fulfill orders. So, it's not exactly a government-run pharmacy. It's more like a glorified referral service.

I find the whole thing… curious. The press release talks about "preventing a stroke," "preventing heart attacks," and "preventing end stage renal disease." These are serious health outcomes, and while weight loss drugs can play a role in reducing those risks, they're not a magic bullet. It feels like they are overpromising the benefits.

What's the Real Cost?

This deal smacks of political expediency wrapped in the guise of healthcare reform. The lower copays are a nice soundbite, but the eligibility restrictions and the tariff exemptions raise serious questions about who really benefits from this arrangement.