fubo: Streaming Without YouTube TV and What We Know

Alright, YouTube TV subscribers are in a bit of a pickle. Disney pulled its channels – ABC, ESPN, FX, National Geographic – due to a contract squabble. No "Monday Night Football," no "Abbott Elementary." The knee-jerk reaction is, understandably, panic. But before you smash your remote, let's look at the data and see if there's a rational way out.

Streaming Options: A Data-Driven Look

The obvious solution is to jump ship to another streaming service. Fubo, Sling TV, and ESPN Unlimited are the main contenders. Let's break down the options:

* Fubo: They're pushing a free trial and $30 off the first month on their Pro or Elite plans. Pro drops to $54.99, Elite to $74.99. Elite also throws in Sports Plus with NFL RedZone. They even have a Deluxe plan now at $84.99 for the first month, adding MGM+ and International Sports Plus. Fubo's been making moves.

* Sling TV: Sling Orange gets you ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN3. ABC is available in select markets. They're also pushing these "Sling Passes" – day, weekend, or week-long access. Sling's angle is flexibility, avoiding those pesky monthly costs. They also dangle a $5 discount on Max if you add it to your plan.

* ESPN Unlimited: This is Disney's direct play. Unlimited is $29.99/month or $299.99/year. ESPN Select is cheaper at $12.99/month or $129.99/year. The differentiator here is direct access to ESPN's content library, including ABC sports, ESPN+, ESPN3, SECN+, and ACCNX.

The question is, which one makes the most sense financially? That depends on your viewing habits. If you're a die-hard NFL fan needing RedZone, Fubo's Elite plan, even with the discount, is a contender. If you just want ESPN for the occasional game, Sling Orange might be the ticket. And if you're already deep in the Disney ecosystem, ESPN Unlimited could streamline things. For more details on streaming options, see How to stream ESPN, ABC and more without YouTube TV.

Fubo's Big Gamble: The Disney Merger

Here's where things get interesting. Fubo's stock (FUBO) jumped recently. Not just because of these YouTube TV refugees, but because of something bigger: their merger with Disney's Hulu + Live TV business.

Revenue-wise, Fubo took a slight hit – down 2.3% Y/Y to $377.20 million. But they beat analyst expectations (consensus was $361.33 million). Adjusted EPS also surprised, coming in at 2 cents versus an expected loss of 4 cents. (Those tiny fractions matter in the market.)

More importantly, paid subscribers in North America rose 1.1% Y/Y to 1.631 million. That's their best third quarter ever. The adjusted EBITDA margin also flipped from -7.1% to a positive 1.8%. That's two straight quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA.

The merger gives them nearly 6 million subscribers across North America, making them the sixth-largest Pay TV service in the US. That's a significant scale advantage. But here's the thought leap: How did this merger influence Fubo's subscriber numbers? Were subscribers acquired before or after the merger? It's hard to say definitively. Details on the exact timing of subscriber acquisition relative to the merger announcement are scarce in the public filings. I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and this particular lack of clarity is a bit unusual, and makes it difficult to draw clean conclusions.

As of September 30th, they had $280.3 million in cash. They burned through $(9.4) million in free cash flow this quarter, a bigger burn than last year's $(1.1) million.

The merger is a double-edged sword. It brings scale and potentially better negotiating power with content providers. But it also adds complexity and integration risk.

Data Points to Ponder

So, what's the real story? A few questions linger:

* Pricing Power: Can Fubo leverage its increased subscriber base to negotiate better content deals, or will Disney call the shots?

* Subscriber Retention: Will YouTube TV subscribers stick with Fubo after the initial free trial, or will they churn?

* Disney's Endgame: Is Disney consolidating streaming services to eventually raise prices across the board?

These are the unknowns that will determine the long-term success of this deal. For now, YouTube TV subscribers have options. But the streaming landscape remains a volatile, constantly shifting battlefield.

The House Always Wins

The short-term pain for YouTube TV subscribers is real. But in the long run, consolidation always leads to higher prices. Enjoy the free trials while they last.